Influencers are predicting housing crash with values falling up to 70%

i’m your friend Paramjit here.  hey guys what’s happening good to be back from california drove back friday just missed the hurricane yeah there was a hurricane in california it wasn’t in california it was coming up the coast okay it was a tropical storm by the time i did california well the best part is the media is like oh the drought.

Then they get rain they’re like there’s gonna be flooding like it just could never be good right well it was good there were some fires there so it was good for those absolutely absolutely so you’re going to mexico uh in the morning for the collective flying down with kiyosaki in the morning we’re heading to cancun and then uh heading to playa for our collective event and i’m excited about that and the collective is your high-end uh it’s our mastermind yeah samia i talked to george gammon this morning and jason Hartman.

And uh we’re getting ready for that we got a bunch of speakers coming in we got uh if you guys haven’t heard of sovereign man we got simon black coming in uh we have robert kiyosaki speaking of course we have robert helms and russ gray we got a chris mcintosh so simon black talks about

having a plan b he calls it so secondary passport legally and uh should be fascinating and then we’re going to talk about you know how how to invest in real estate out of the country so that’s why uh robert helms and russ gray are coming in because um you know they’ve they’ve been doing deals outside of the united states uh and uh we’re gonna tour a development in cancun.

Influencers are predicting housing crash with values falling up to 70%

So yeah it’s gonna be fun yeah awesome well that those events are always really good they’re all gonna be a lot of fun all right so today we’re talking about uh the housing market and the potential housing crash well i’ve got a video coming out on friday about this so i can’t wait to hear where

this goes yeah well you know so basically you know we were looking at youtube uh all this week and we see a lot of influencers that are predicting you know 70 60 uh housing price changes and i um you know we don’t we don’t love that because we feel like they’re you know dooms daying right without any real factual information.

Yeah and it’s hard you know there’s a lot of data out there there’s there’s um uh you know i and i’ve been wrong before on mine early on in the pandemic i didn’t expect that the you know the government was going to fund you know people like they did uh and you know which is obviously creating this inflation now but i think that um the facts are pretty clear in my opinion so if you if you take a look at the the fed they’re saying and they’ve been they haven’t wavered that their target inflation is two percent that’s what they’re sayingmm-hmm and it was a couple years ago so so anyway.

Now we are in in the eights i guess it was at 9.1 now it’s at 8.5 and the new numbers are coming out this week but the point is we’re 67 off that inflation number yeah and the lever that they use is interest rates or one of the levers so they we had four rate increases since march guess what inflation was in march of 2022 8.5 guess what inflation is in July of 2022 8.5 that’s with four rate increases right.

Okay so now i know there’s lag and there’s things that have to happen of course and there’s definitely lag but there’s lag both ways there’s no question that mortgage applications are way down the refinance applications are 83bpercent lower than one year ago well almost everybody refinanced well i don’t know there’s a lot more equity run up that we had in the last year so you know so mortgage mortgage applications are at a 22-year low they’re 23 off and refinance applications are 83 off.

So that’s what we call a clue you know so and by the way this is fairly recent you know you no one can accurately predict where this is heading but there’s a number of economists and I think you got to be careful if you’re getting your data from Zillow or from you know realtor or you know those kinds of uh organizations that actually are very much supporting the residential um industry.

Prediction of a Big Crash

Then i think you have to be suspect at least because they’re not going to predict some big crash, what you got to do is step back from it and take a look at other people that don’t have a a um you know anything in the game well you also need to watch those catchy headlines right so this is kind of

here’s the data from moody’s that a lot of these influencers are basing this is a great one prediction on it’s a great one but but they’re reading it incorrectly so at the latest reading moody’s analysts find 183 of the nation’s largest regional housing markets are overvalued by more than 25 percent that includes markets like boise who they feel is overvalued by 72 percent charlotte overvalued by 66 and austin overvalued by 61.

So these that really makes great headlines because if you don’t know what you’re reading what you think and what some of these influencers have said is this is awesome the boise market is going to drop by 72 percent and the austin market is predicted to drop by 61 percent that’s not what it’s saying.

That’s not what’s gonna happen either exactly and so but but it makes for good headlines right but it does mean that those markets when a market is overvalued it doesn’t mean that the market is going to to drop as much as overvalued by but what you can get from that data is that most overvalued markets typically have bigger corrections.

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